In anii 70, exista un think tank a elitei mondiale numita Clubul de la Roma care speria oamenii cu predictii false, gen
- pana in anul 1990, tot petrolul se va epuiza
- pana in 1992, rezervele de cositor, cupru si aluminiu vor fi consumate
John Brunner e clubul de la Roma, dar in SF. N-o sa mai fie suficienta mancare, n-o sa mai fie suficiente resurse, o sa va inmultiti prea mult. A fost foarte ridicat in slavi de ecologisti. A luat chiar premiul Hugo in 1969.
Solutii inteligente, specifice sf? NU, O SA MURITI!
Reducere a poluarii? NU, O SA MURITI!
Mutare pe Marte? NU SE POATE, N-AVETI DESTULE RESURSE. O SA MURITI!
Si tot asa.
Probabil foarte multa lume a citit cartea atat de recomandata si s-a despartit definitiv de SF, crezand ca e un gen plictisitor si moralist.
Ca de fiecare data cand se ajunge la un asemenea hal de fiasco, vom auzi aceeasi scuza: "dar ei credeau ca o fac in numele unui ideal bun". Mai putin cu idealul, si mai mult cu adevarul, boss. Si adevarul e ca asta nu merita numele de SF.
Ca de fiecare data cand se ajunge la un asemenea hal de fiasco, vom auzi aceeasi scuza: "dar ei credeau ca o fac in numele unui ideal bun". Mai putin cu idealul, si mai mult cu adevarul, boss. Si adevarul e ca asta nu merita numele de SF.
In ce priveste predictiile astea de tip apocaliptic, cazul cel mai interesant mi se pare a fi cel privind predictiile privind suprapopularea planetei.
RăspundețiȘtergereMalthus nu a fost deloc primul care a avut ideea asta. Ea este de fapt foarte, foarte veche si apare inclusiv prin surse antice mitologice, cum este cazul cu un text vechi mesopotamian in care motivul declansarii Potopului este descris a fi tocmai inmultirea exagerata a oamenilor(apropo, ca fapt divers, in mitul respectiv zeul Enki are multe caracteristici comune cu Prometeu din varianta greceasca a mitului Potopului, asa ca eu inclin sa cred ca mitul asta mesopotamian nu constituie doar sursa posibila a mitului biblic al Potopului ci sursa mai multor mituri din astea din antichitate):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atra-Hasis
"Tablet I contains a creation myth about the Sumerian gods Anu, Enlil, and Enki, gods of sky, wind, and water, “when gods were in the ways of men” according to its incipit. Following the Cleromancy (casting of lots), sky is ruled by Anu, earth by Enlil, and the freshwater sea by Enki. Enlil assigned junior divines to do farm labor and maintain the rivers and canals, but after forty years the lesser gods or dingirs rebelled and refused to do strenuous labor. Instead of punishing the rebels, Enki, who is also the kind, wise counselor of the gods, suggested that humans be created to do the work. The mother goddess Mami is assigned the task of creating humans by shaping clay figurines mixed with the flesh and blood of the slain god Geshtu-E, “a god who had intelligence” (his name means “ear” or “wisdom”). All the gods in turn spit upon the clay. After 10 months, a specially-made womb breaks open and humans are born. Tablet I continues with legends about overpopulation and plagues. Atrahasis is mentioned at the end of Tablet I.
Tablet II begins with more overpopulation of humans and the god Enlil sending first famine and drought at formulaic intervals of 1200 years to reduce the population. In this epic Enlil is depicted as a cruel, capricious god while Enki is depicted as a kind, helpful god, perhaps because priests of Enki were writing and copying the story. Tablet II is mostly damaged, but ends with Enlil's decision to destroy humankind with a flood and Enki bound by an oath to keep the plan secret.
Tablet III of the Atrahasis Epic contains the flood story. This is the part that was adapted in tablet XI of the Epic of Gilgamesh. Tablet III of Atrahasis tells how the god Enki warns the hero Atrahasis (“Extremely Wise”) of Shuruppak, speaking through a reed wall (suggestive of an oracle) to dismantle his house (perhaps to provide a construction site) and build a boat to escape the flood planned by the god Enlil to destroy humankind. The boat is to have a roof “like Apsu” (a subterranean, fresh water realm presided over by the god Enki), upper and lower decks, and to be sealed with bitumen. Atrahasis boards the boat with his family and animals and seals the door. The storm and flood begin. Even the gods are afraid. In tablet III iv, lines 7-9 the words "river" and "riverbank" are used, which probably mean the Euphrates River, because Atrahasis is listed in WB-62 as a ruler of Shuruppak which was on the Euphrates River.
After seven days the flood ends and Atrahasis offers sacrifices to the gods. Enlil is furious with Enki for violating his oath. But Enki denies violating his oath and argues: “I made sure life was preserved.” Enki and Enlil agree on other means for controlling the human population."
Tot apropo de predictiile apocaliptice privind suprapopularea, un alt predecesor al lui Mathus a fost un venetian ce a trait in secolele XVI-XVII:
RăspundețiȘtergerehttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Giovanni_Botero
"Giovanni Botero (c. 1544 – 1617) was an Italian thinker, priest, poet, and diplomat, best known for his work Della ragion di Stato (The Reason of State).[...]
...
By the late 1580s, Botero had already published a few works, most notably an epic-style poem dedicated to Henry III of France in 1573 and a Latin commentary on Hebrew Scriptures titled On Kingly Wisdom in 1583, but his most important works were yet to come. In 1588, Botero first published his Delle cause della grandezza delle città (On the Causes of the Greatness of Cities). Foreshadowing the work of Thomas Malthus, here Botero outlines the generative and nutritive virtues of a city, the former being the rate of human reproduction, and the latter being the ability of the products of the city and its countryside to maintain the people. Cities grow when their nutritive virtue is greater than the generative, but at the inevitable point when these virtues are inverted, the city begins to die."
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Faza interesanta este faptul ca daca cineva, cumva, ar putea sa ii readuca la viata in prezent pe Malthus si Botero, respectivii ar fi probabil stupefiati sa constate ca de fapt planeta poate suporta o populatie umana de o marime pe care ei cel mai probabil nici nu ar fi putut sa o conceapa la timpul lor. :)
Povestea asta cu suprapopularea este pana la urma o obsesie foarte, foarte veche, care pana acum a esuat sa se materializeze in forma apocaliptica imaginata de catre adeptii ei. Chestie care pe mine ma face sa ma gandesc ca de fapt cam nimeni nu are nici cea mai vaga idee despre cat de multi oameni poate pana la urma sa suporte Pamantul asta.
Lucru care cred ca se aplica si altor povesti si teorii din astea, cum e cazul si cu modificarile climatice cauzate de incalzirea globala. Sunt in general convins ca respectivele modificari chiar au loc, dar cred ca toti expertii aia nu prea au idee de fapt care este pana la urma punctul ala al evolutiei modificarilor de clima la care civilizatia umana chiar va ajunge sa prezinte un risc real de colaps. Nimeni nu cred ca stie cu adevarat lucrul asta si in plus modificarile astea climatice s-ar putea ca in anumite zone geografice sa aiba si niste efecte benefice pana la urma. De exemplu, topirea calotelor glaciare ar trebui sa produca global mai multa umiditate atmosferica si tin minte ca citeam mai demult intr-un articol de pe contributors.ro al domnului Cranganu ca exista deja dovezi(poze facute de sateliti parca, daca am tinut bine minte) ca anumite zone aride sau semi-aride din Africa sub-sahariana au inceput sa se "inverzeasca". Iar rusii de-abia asteapta ca anumite zone din Siberia sa devina exploatabile economic in urma incalzirii globale.
Nu toti oamenii de pe glob vor suferi in acelasi fel urmarile modificarilor climatice, iar pentru unii dintre ei incalzirea globala chiar ar putea sa le prezinte si niste oportunitati nesperate pana acum.
Giovanni Botero era de fapt piemontez, nu venetian, la origine. Am fost eu neatent cand am scris comentariul de mai sus. Mea culpa.
Ștergere